No reliable rise in burglaries after clocks go back in England

Across England, police and local news warn that home burglaries rise as the clocks go back and darkness falls earlier. But does the data for real residential areas actually support this? Our own review of three years of police.uk street-level crime data in five typical city neighbourhoods found no dependable jump in break-ins during the darker months[1]. Here is what we saw, how it compares to official warnings, and what actions still make sense.

What police and local news warn about autumn burglaries

Police across the UK often urge extra caution as autumn sets in. Hertfordshire Constabulary, for example, stated that burglary "numbers tend to rise once the clocks go back" and that "during the autumn and winter months burglars are especially active"[3]. They recommend using timer switches, double-locking doors, and installing cameras or alarms as the evenings become longer and homes are left in darkness[3].

Such warnings are well-intentioned. Police see real seasonal patterns in some districts, and their advice focuses on simple, affordable security steps like lights on timers and locked doors[3]. But do the numbers back up the idea of a universal autumn and winter surge?

What three years of police.uk data reveal

We counted every "burglary" recorded by police.uk from September 2023 to August 2026 in nine urban areas: five residential neighbourhoods (Clapham, Headingley, Moseley, Bishopston, Crookes) and four city centres (London Westminster, Leeds, Birmingham, Bristol)[1]. The counts are per day, to allow fair comparison across months[1].

Residential areas: No reliable autumn or winter surge

The table below shows how burglary rates compared in the four darkest months (October–January) versus the four lightest (May–August), averaged over three years[1]:

Across these five residential areas, there was no consistent increase in the darker months. Clapham, for example, had almost exactly the same number of burglaries per day in autumn/winter as in spring/summer, and the difference never strayed more than 2.1% either way in any single year[1]. Headingley was flat over three years (−0.6%), though one year rose 9.2%.

Where there were bigger swings—such as Crookes, which went from -40.8% one year to +76.2% the next—these were in places with fewer burglaries overall, meaning that a small number of incidents could shift the percentage dramatically[1]. In short, the data do not show a dependable seasonal rise in residential burglaries.

City centre contrast: One clear seasonal pattern

City centres, which include shops and offices as well as homes, showed a different pattern. Leeds city centre saw a higher burglary rate in the darker months every year (+41.2%, +29.4%, +6.1%), and Westminster in London showed a 9.3% increase overall[1].

However, this pattern did not hold for every city. Westminster's numbers, for example, include an unusually low May 2026 (44 burglaries against 90–160 in most months), possibly a data gap that inflates its 2025–26 figure, and Bristol was almost flat[1]. City centre counts include non-residential burglaries (shops, offices), so these results may not apply to most readers' homes.

What the data cannot tell you

No source gives a national or regional percentage change for residential burglaries after the clocks go back; what the sources do show is limited to small samples and available data fields. Our own test, gathered on 30 October 2026, used police.uk street-level crime records for nine areas, each within a one-mile radius, and covered three years[1]. These figures, while thorough for the sampled locations, do not represent England as a whole or even broad regions.

A few key limits shape what this data can reveal:

• police.uk only records the month when a burglary is reported, not the specific day or hour—so while our test compared October-to-January with May-to-August, it cannot show whether burglaries shift to earlier or later in the day after the clocks change, or if weekend patterns differ across seasons[1].
• In neighbourhoods with low monthly counts (for example, the three smaller areas ranged from 8 to 45 burglaries per month), a single busy week or even one large incident can swing the figures dramatically from one year to the next. This makes it easy to mistake short-term noise for a trend[1].
• The test includes just nine areas and does not cover rural locations, other cities, or regions where crime patterns could differ[1].
• Not every burglary is reported, and for privacy, police.uk data shifts crime locations slightly. This can affect the exact count within a one-mile radius, especially at the edges of each area or when comparing small numbers[2].

So, while our October 2026 test data can say that in these specific areas and periods, darker months were not reliably worse for residential burglaries, it cannot extend that finding to all of England—or reveal subtler changes in timing or method that monthly, anonymised data simply does not track[1][2].

Why police still advise autumn security steps

Given the uncertainty, why do police and local news continue to warn about burglaries in the darker months and promote extra precautions? Several reasons make sense:

• Even if a clear seasonal spike is not found in the data for every area, a few extra break-ins can have a big local impact.
• The cost of simple security measures—timers, locked doors, visible cameras—is low compared to the risk and stress of a break-in[3].
• Some areas or years may still see an autumn or winter rise, even if it is not reliable everywhere[1, 3].

Practical advice like using timer switches or double-locking doors is not wasted, even if the numbers do not always show a surge after the clocks go back[3].

A worked example

Suppose you live in a neighbourhood similar to Clapham, with about 1.9 burglaries per day averaged over the year. According to our data, the rate in the darker months (October–January) was essentially unchanged: just 0.7% lower over three years, and in any single year, never more than 2.1% higher or lower than the lighter months[1]. This means that, for a typical resident, the odds of a break-in in autumn or winter did not measurably increase compared to spring or summer.

Questions readers ask

What about my area if it is not on this list?

The areas tested were typical but do not cover every city or rural area. Your local numbers may differ, especially if your neighbourhood is very small or has unusual local factors. Check your local police site for area-specific advice or statistics.

Does the time of day for burglaries change after the clocks go back?

The data counted here only records the month, not the hour, so we cannot say whether burglars shift to different times of day as evenings get darker[1, 2]. Police warnings often mention this as a risk, but this count does not measure it.

Should I still use timers and cameras if my area's rate is flat?

Yes—the cost of basic security is low, and even if the risk does not rise in autumn, the same precautions deter opportunistic break-ins year-round[3]. These measures can also help with insurance claims and peace of mind.

How the numbers work

These figures were computed for this article, not estimated by its writer. Inputs come from the numbered sources or are assumptions, labelled as such; change an assumption and the results change with it.

Sources

1. The site owner's own test data (2026-10-30): Burglary by season from police.uk data, nine areas, Sep 2023 to Aug 2026: our count
2. Police API Documentation | data.police.uk
3. Don’t fall foul of burglars this autumn warn Hertfordshire police | Local News | News | Hitchin Nub News | by James Denselow

*Corrected 2026-10-30: Leeds city centre's three-year difference is 26.2%, not 41.2% (that was one year); Clapham varied up to 2.1% a year; Headingley had one year up 9.2%; the 8 to 45 burglaries a month is the three smaller areas together; and Westminster's distortion is an unusually low May 2026, not a missing month.*